The time has come once more for the film industry’s biggest night of self-congratulatory back-patting. Perhaps this year more than ever, I’m just not feeling it. The front-running movie felt preordained to win both the Best Picture and Best Director Oscars ever since the moment the nominations were announced, and quite honestly, I could not possibly have less interest in ever watching it.

Earlier in the year, speculation had it that the Oscar race would come down to a competition between Christopher Nolan’s very solemn, serious-minded awards-bait bio-pic Oppenheimer and the year’s biggest blockbuster hit, the cultural phenomenon Barbie. Considering that last year’s top award went to the rather unconventional Everything Everywhere All at Once, some hope was raised that the famously stodgy Academy voters might once again go against the grain of what is typically considered an “Oscar movie.”

Sadly, then the nominations came out. Although Barbie did indeed receive a token nomination for Best Picture (along with eight other movies with no chance at all of winning), the bald-faced snubs against both Greta Gerwig for Best Director and Margot Robbie for Best Actress made it abundantly clear that the Academy voters had no intention of letting the bright and bubbly, satirical meta-comedy actually win anything important. If it were lucky, maybe the movie could score a Production Design or Costume trophy. (As it turned out, not even those, just a sole win for Best Original Song.)

I’ve made no secret of the fact that I have very little patience for Christopher Nolan these days. The filmmaker started his career with such incredible promise, but after peaking with the masterpiece Memento (only his second feature), everything else has been a steady downhill decline. Even his mega-popular Dark Knight trilogy has not held up all that well, in my opinion (especially the dreadful third entry). I did not go to see Oppenheimer in the deafening cacophony of an IMAX theater, as the director insists is the only way it should ever be seen. Nor do I have any intention of watching it at home, even though it’s currently available on a streaming service I subscribe to. I just don’t give a damn.

I did see Barbie. I don’t know whether it’s really the best movie of the year, but it was fun and I enjoyed it. I also saw some of The Holdovers. (My viewing was interrupted.) I liked what I saw and plan to come back to it. That one is probably a better movie (however you want to define that), but I wasn’t ever going to kid myself that it had a realistic shot at Best Picture in this race. The other nominees I have varying degrees of someday watching, but haven’t gotten around to yet.

I’ve rarely had a great track record for picking Oscar winners, but at least as far as the top two categories this year were concerned, the results were depressingly predictable.

Best Picture

• American Fiction
• Anatomy of a Fall
• Barbie
• The Holdovers
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Maestro
• Oppenheimer
• Past Lives
• Poor Things
• The Zone of Interest

Josh’s Prediction: Oppenheimer

Actual Winner: Oppenheimer

Best Director

• Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
• Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
• Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
• Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
• Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

Josh’s Prediction: Christopher Nolan

Actual Winner: Christopher Nolan

Best Actress

• Annette Bening, Nyad
• Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
• Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
• Carey Mulligan, Maestro
• Emma Stone, Poor Things

Josh’s Prediction: Lily Gladstone

Actual Winner: Emma Stone

Best Actor

• Bradley Cooper, Maestro
• Colman Domingo, Rustin
• Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
• Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
• Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Josh’s Prediction: Cillian Murphy

Actual Winner: Cillian Murphy

Best Supporting Actress

• Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
• Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
• America Ferrera, Barbie
• Jodie Foster, Nyad
• Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Josh’s Prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph

Actual Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph

Best Supporting Actor

• Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
• Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
• Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer
• Ryan Gosling, Barbie
• Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Josh’s Prediction: Robert Downey, Jr.

Actual Winner: Robert Downey, Jr.

Best Original Screenplay

• Anatomy of a Fall
• The Holdovers
• Maestro
• May December
• Past Lives

Josh’s Prediction: Anatomy of a Fall

Actual Winner: Anatomy of a Fall

Best Adapted Screenplay

• American Fiction
• Barbie
• Oppenheimer
• Poor Things
• The Zone of Interest

Josh’s Prediction: Oppenheimer

Actual Winner: American Fiction

Best International Feature

• Io Capitano
• Perfect Days
• Society of the Snow
• The Teacher’s Lounge
• The Zone of Interest

Josh’s Prediction: The Zone of Interest

Actual Winner: The Zone of Interest

Best Animated Feature

• The Boy and the Heron
• Elemental
• Nimona
• Robot Dreams
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Josh’s Prediction: The Boy and the Heron

Actual Winner: The Boy and the Heron

Best Documentary Feature

• Babi Wine: The People’s President
• The Eternal Memory
• Four Daughters
• To Kill a Tiger
• 20 Days in Mariupol

Josh’s Prediction: Four Daughters

Actual Winner: 20 Days in Mariupol

Best Original Score

• American Fiction
• Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Oppenheimer
• Poor Things

Josh’s Prediction: Oppenheimer

Actual Winner: Oppenheimer

Best Original Song

• “The Fire Inside,” Flamin’ Hot
• “I’m Just Ken,” Barbie
• “It Never Went Away,” American Symphony
• “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” Killers of the Flower Moon
• “What Was I Made For?,” Barbie

Josh’s Prediction: “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)”

Actual Winner: “What Was I Made For?”

Best Cinematography

• El Conde
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Maestro
• Oppenheimer
• Poor Things

Josh’s Prediction: Oppenheimer

Actual Winner: Oppenheimer

Best Costume Design

• Barbie
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Napoleon
• Oppenheimer
• Poor Things

Josh’s Prediction: Poor Things

Actual Winner: Poor Things

Best Editing

• Anatomy of a Fall
• The Holdovers
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Oppenheimer
• Poor Things

Josh’s Prediction: Oppenheimer

Actual Winner: Oppenheimer

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• Golda
• Maestro
• Oppenheimer
• Poor Things
• Society of the Snow

Josh’s Prediction: Poor Things

Actual Winner: Poor Things

Best Production Design

• Barbie
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Napoleon
• Oppenheimer
• Poor Things

Josh’s Prediction: Barbie

Actual Winner: Poor Things

Best Sound

• The Creator
• Maestro
• Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
• Oppenheimer
• The Zone of Interest

Josh’s Prediction: Oppenheimer

Actual Winner: The Zone of Interest

Best Visual Effects

• The Creator
• Godzilla Minus One
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
• Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
• Napoleon

Josh’s Prediction: Godzilla Minus One

Actual Winner: Godzilla Minus One

Best Animated Short

• Letter to a Pig
• Ninety-Five Senses
• Our Uniform
• Pachyderme
• War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

Josh’s Prediction: War Is Over!

Actual Winner: War Is Over!

Best Live-Action Short

• The After
• Invincible
• Knight of Fortune
• Red, White and Blue
• The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Josh’s Prediction: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Actual Winner: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Best Documentary Short

• The ABCs of Book Burning
• The Barber of Little Rock
• Island in Between
• The Last Repair Shop
• Nai Nai & Wài Pó

Josh’s Prediction: The ABCs of Book Burning

Actual Winner: The Last Repair Shop

Josh’s Final Score: 16/23