There was once a time when I followed the annual Oscars race with great interest and excitement. I even went so far as to live-blog the damn ceremony a few times at my last gig. These days, however, I can barely give a damn. I didn’t even realize the nominations would be announced this week until after they happened, or I would have prepared a post about them to run in a more timely manner. Oh well, I missed it. Now we’re a day late and, if you still care about these awards, you’ve probably already read plenty of other commentary about them. That’s on me. For what it’s worth, I’ll throw together a few quick thoughts anyway. Take them as you will.

As I disclosed previously, I did not see any movies in the theater in 2022. Not one. This puts me at a decided disadvantage at predicting award winners, which I’ve never been good at in the first place. Of this year’s ten Best Picture nominees, I’ve seen three of them. I might have interest in eventually watching a couple more, but I will probably never get to all of them. Somehow, I don’t feel too guilt-ridden about that.

The nominations were announced yesterday morning in a televised ceremony hosted by actors Riz Ahmed (who actually won an Oscar for a short film last year) and Allison Williams. I won’t list out all of the categories here, just those for the top prizes. You can find the full list of nominees on the official Oscars web site.

Best Picture

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• The Fabelmans
• Tár
• Top Gun: Maverick
• Triangle of Sadness
• Women Talking

The very strange and very inventive multiverse-hopping action/comedy Everything Everywhere All at Once leads this year’s nominations with eleven. This ought to put in position to be the front-runner, but my expectation is that it will ultimately prove to be too weird for the famously stodgy Academy voting body, who will more likely favor Steven Spielberg’s navel-gazing semi-autobiography The Fabelmans. An old white man who already has a few Oscar statues on his mantle reminiscing about his how he fell in love with movies as a kid… Could a more perfectly calibrated piece of Oscar bait possibly exist? No, it could not.

Ever since the Academy expanded the Best Picture category to ten nominees, that has allowed a token popcorn movie or two to slip into the field each year without any real hope of winning. This year we have both the Top Gun and Avatar sequels for that. At least Avatar has the precedent that its predecessor was also nominated here. Top Gun, not so much. It’s nice just to be nominated, fellas.

What I’d vote for: The Banshees of Inisherin

What will probably win: The Fabelmans

Best Director

• Todd Field – Tár
• Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
• Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness
• Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

You just know that James Cameron is bristling with indignation right now about being snubbed. Too bad for him.

I see this going one of two ways. Either Steven Spielberg will pick up his third Best Director trophy, or this will be one of the rare years where the Best Director and Best Picture categories split in different directions. Even if it doesn’t take top prize, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Academy voters rewarded The Daniels for the technical achievement and very complicated storytelling-wrangling they managed in Everything Everywhere.

Who I’d vote for: The Daniels

Who will probably win: The Daniels

Best Actor

• Austin Butler – Elvis
• Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
• Brendan Fraser – The Whale
• Paul Mescal – Aftersun
• Bill Nighy – Living

Brendan Fraser has been buzzed for months as this year’s surefire Oscar winner for his performance as a morbidly obese English teacher, and I’m sure that will come to pass. However, a backlash against the movie’s alleged body-shaming has also been brewing for a while, which may hamper his chances.

An outside possibility exists where the old white men voting for the prize could rally behind beloved character actor Bill Nighy and gift him with a late career lifetime achievement make-good award. That sort of thing has happened before.

Who I’d vote for: Colin Farrell

Who will probably win: Brendan Fraser

Best Actress

• Cate Blanchett – Tár
• Ana de Armas – Blonde
• Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie
• Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
• Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

This is Michelle Yeoh’s category to lose, and I can’t see it going any other direction. How Ana de Armas got nominated for a movie that was almost universally hated is a little perplexing, unless it’s the Academy’s way of reassuring the actress that nobody blames her for that mess.

I’d never heard of To Leslie until these nominations were announced, and odds are you hadn’t either.

Who I’d vote for: Michelle Yeoh

Who will probably win: Michelle Yeoh

Best Supporting Actor

• Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
• Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway
• Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
• Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
• Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Yes, it’s adorable and heartwarming that Short Round from Temple of Doom had a big career comeback last year. He was also very fun in the movie. Oscar worthy, though? I don’t know that I’d go that far. Nonetheless, he seems to have momentum after his Golden Globes win, and will probably continue here.

If I’m wrong, look for Judd Hirsch to get the “Beloved Character Actor Who Should Have Won for Ordinary People but Didn’t So We’ll Give Him a Trophy Now” award.

Who I’d vote for: Brendan Gleeson

Who will probably win: Ke Huy Quan

Best Supporting Actress

• Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Hong Chau – The Whale
• Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
• Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Don’t get me wrong, I love Jamie Lee Curtis. She was fun in that movie. I won’t feel bad when she wins. But Kerry Condon’s performance broke my damn heart and she deserves all the awards she can get for it.

Who I’d vote for: Kerry Condon

Who will probably win: Jamie Lee Curtis

Best Animated Feature Film

• Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
• Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
• Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
• The Sea Beast
• Turning Red

I’m aware that I’m an outlier for hating Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio. My distaste for it grows with every new award it picks up. At this point, I don’t just want it to lose; I want the entire film to cease existing altogether. It’s awful.

I would much prefer that literally any other movie in this category win. Yes, even Puss in Boots if need be.

What I’d vote for: Turning Red

What will probably win: Pinocchio

Best Original Screenplay

• The Banshees of Inisherin
• Everything Everywhere All at Once
• The Fabelmans
• Tár
• Triangle of Sadness

I expect that Everything Everywhere will be rewarded as the most “original” of the Original Screenplays. I have no problem with that, other than that I feel the multiverse thing is really overplayed these days.

What I’d vote for: The Banshees of Inisherin

What will probably win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Adapted Screenplay

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
• Living
• Top Gun: Maverick
• Women Talking

The only of these movies I’ve seen is Top Gun. I enjoyed it a lot, but Best Screenplay? Seriously? No.

What I’d vote for: Gonna have to pass on this one for now.

What will probably win: Glass Onion

The Academy Awards ceremony will air on ABC Sunday, March 12, 2023.